Friends

(Cross-posted at ML and BFM-pb)

State Senate Pre-Primary Filing Statements

While I have much more information on my subscription-only database, I figured that please might appreciate some basic information about the top fundraisers for Michigan State Senate primary races. Again, for those interested in the complete set of financial data, you can request a subscription at peterbratt@gmail.com.

Nearly all candidates have reported their financial data (with the glaring exceptions of Rebekah Warren in the 18th and Coleman Young Jr. in the 1st). The top fifteen candidates in terms of money raised are listed in the link provided below:
https://spreadsheets.google.co...

11 of the top fundraisers of Republicans, and two are in the 20th State Senate District primary. David LaGrand and David Hildenbrand are two other top fundraisers, and are potential opponents in a general election matchup in the 29th State Senate District. The top 15 spenders are listed next (the second tab of the spreadsheet):
https://spreadsheets.google.co...

Incumbents and candidates personally financing their campaigns dominate the list of candidates with the most cash on hand listed on the third tab of the spreadsheet:
https://spreadsheets.google.co...

Republicans hold all but two of the top 15 spots on the fourth spreadsheet linked below.
https://spreadsheets.google.co...

While money can't buy victory, it sure can help. However, in a couple of primaries, namely the 11th and 20th Republican races, the candidates are literally locked in a spending arms race in the final weeks. Should be interesting to see what happens on August 3.

An analysis of the State House races will be provided later this week.

(Monday 7/26 update: Representative Dean's financial statement was released on Sunday July 25. Dean raised $30,271, spent $22,779, and has $3,031 cash on hand. The campaign has debts of $24,969, a loan which Dean gave to the campaign on January 29, 2010. Dean has a total of 22 donors, and in addition to his loan he contributed another $3,500 to the campaign. So, essentially, Dean's donors have given him a grand total of $2,500.-pb)

While I have much more information on my subscription only database, I figured that folks at West Michigan Rising might appreciate some basic information about a couple of races of interest. Again, for those interested, you can request a subscription at peterbratt@gmail.com.

20th State Senate District

First, in the 20th State Senate District there is a lot of money being thrown around. Lorence Wenke raised $317,260, spent $211,476 and has $125,125 cash on hand. Much of this money came from Wenke's own pocket, as he has loaned himself $365,000. Wenke is followed by Tonya Schuitmaker who raised $126,464, spent $146,767, and has $106,085 in cash on hand. Like Wenke, Schuitmaker has spent a large amount of her own money, providing herself with $100,000 in a personal loan. Schuitmaker and Wenke are both from different sides of the Republican tent-Wenke is an unabashed socially liberal Republican, while Schuitmaker has lined up support from conservative loyalists in the 20th District despite her inferior geographic position (being from Van Buren County rather than Kalamazoo). The third candidate in the GOP primary, moderate Larry DeShazor, has raised $34,141, spent $30,809, and has $3,331 cash on hand, with personal loans of $19,804. While many consider DeShazor to be the strongest general election candidate the GOP could run, his poor fund raising is likely to hinder him in this free spending primary. For what it is worth, I'm predicting Schuitmaker to win on August 3.

On the Democratic side, Mark Totten has again substantially out raised Representative Robert Jones. Totten raised $65,942, spent $112,928, and has $73,100 in cash on hand, with a personal loan of $32,704. In contrast, Jones raised $49,770, spent $40,639, has $9,131 in cash on hand, and has a personal loan of $10,377. While Ballenger is calling this race for Jones, I think Totten is going to pull this one out.  
29th State Senate District

In the other big west Michigan primary, the 29th State Senate district has five candidates, three Republicans and two Democrats. on the Republican side, State Representative David Hildenbrand raised $100,307, spent $68,170 and has $170,192 in cash on hand. Hildenbrand's opponent Lori Wiersma raised $48,239, spent $39,237, and has $8,991 in cash on hand (and a personal loan of $1,750). While Wiersma is a stronger general election candidate for the GOP as she hails from Grand Rapids and is more moderate, it is hard to beat someone who has such a sizable financial edge that the GOP Representative from Lowell does. The third GOP candidate Judith Faye Kapteyn did not file a statement.

On the Democratic side, David LaGrand raised an enormous sum of $116,938. LaGrand spent $64,739, and has $52,198 in cash on hand. LaGrand's opponent Representative Robert Dean did not submit a statement as of 9am Saturday morning. Given all the turmoil in the Dean campaign and that Dean's campaign treasurer is Noah Seifullah, who remains on the Dean campaign despite resigning in disgrace as Dean's chief of staff, the delay in a filing statement is somewhat expected. Regardless of Dean's financial haul, I expect him to be a serious disadvantage to LaGrand on August 3 (a prediction will come later next week).

State House Districts

In the state house races, there are few things to note. First, Democratic Representative Roy Schmidt raised a lot of money, pulling in $57,748, spending $15,699, and has $82,317 in cash on hand. Not bad for running against an GOP candidate who filed a financial waiver promising not to raise more than $1,000. There isn't much more news in any other race than in the 75th District.

75th State House District

This seat, which covers eastern Grand Rapids, features a bitter Republican primary between Bing Goei and Jordan Bush. Goei, who is generally viewed as the moderate, raised $44,256, spent $41,729, and has $2,527 in cash on hand. Goei also took out a personal loan of $10,000. Bush raised $19,490, spent $23,950, and has $2,965 in cash on hand (and a $8,880 personal loan). Given Goei's connections and endorsements by the GOP establishment, he was expected to raise substantial amounts of money, but this has not quiet panned out. Bush remains in contention, and I view the race as a toss up with 10 days to go.

Waiting for either Republican candidate is Democratic County Commissioner Brandon Dillon. Dillon nearly bested Roy Schmidt in the fund raising race, pulling in $51,281, while spending only $11,816 and has $39,465 in cash on hand. Dillon isn't napping as he waits for an opponent.  

The Justice Caucus of the Michigan Democratic Party announces the following endorsements:

Jim Ananich     49th House District

Robert Dean     29th Senate District

Brandon Dillon     75th House District

Fred Durhal     6th House District

Frank Houston     26th House District  

Pam Jackson     15th Senate District    

Deb Kennedy     23rd House District

Ellen Cogen Lipton     27th House District

Lonnie Scott     54th House District

Ned Staebler     53rd House District  

Gretchen Whitmer     23rd Senate District

Candidates running for federal office were required to submit their second quarter filing statements by July 15th at 5pm. Most of the financial data is online now, so let's look at two races close to WMR's heart: the 2nd and 3rd Michigan Congressional Districts.

In the 2nd District Republican primary, the long-standing cash on hand edge that Jay Riemersma had has largely disappeared. Of the seven candidates in the 2nd District primary, listed below is the 2nd quarter financial data:

CandidateContributions 2ndQ (Total)Spending 2ndQ (Total)Cash On Hand (debts) COOPER(R)$16,920 ($92,596)$75,949 ($164,952)$106,038 ($178,348) HUIZENGA(R)$108,124 ($292,481)$67,750 ($217,675)$100,756 ($25,000) KUIPERS(R)$75,415 ($188,005)$17,445 ($38,370)$149,634 MCCLURE(R)$4,682 ($4,682)$6,757 ($6,757)$1,419 REICHARDT(R)$66,376 ($102,349)$85,073 ($97,939)$3,981 RIEMERSMA(R)$122,545 ($448,153)$253,011 ($521,012)$127,540 ($200,000) WINCEL(R)$300 ($7,185)$7,664 ($11,993)$2,191 ($7,000) JOHNSON(D)$29,242 ($53,301)$20,258 ($37,797)$15,963 ($1,000)

Riemersma has just been burning cash this quarter, no doubt in part to working with Strategic National. With four candidates (Kuipers, Riemersma, Huizenga, and Cooper) having over $100,000 cash on hand for the final five weeks before the primary, the outcome is still in doubt. The winner of the primary will face Democratic candidate Fred Johnson, who reported respectable numbers. Go over the fold to see the 3rd District numbers.
CandidateContributions 2ndQ (Total)Spending 2ndQ (Total)Cash On Hand (debts) AMASH(R)$178,531 ($269,494)$132,958 ($182,959)$162,135 ($138,876) HARDIMNAN(R)$67,836 ($121,923)$77,381 ($78,243)$43,579 HEACOCK(R)$125,608 ($198,745)$172,496 ($172,496)$51,298 ($25,050) MILES(D)$138,119 ($195,449)$48,261 ($50,239)$259,983 ($115,000)

As of 2pm, Overbeek had not yet filed. Heading into the final month, Amash has a substantial cash on hand advantage over Heacock, which will like be used. Interestingly, Amash made a loan of $50,000 to his campaign during the 2nd quarter, bringing his total outstanding debts to $138,876. Hardiman has kept his spending down to remain financially competitive in the closing days of the campaign.

For all of Amash's denouements of liberals, I'm pleased to see that he is using Practical Political Consulting, a Democratic consulting firm run by Mark Grebner in East Lansing. When the going gets rough, use the best. Using the Campaign Resource Group run by Don Goris in Grand Rapids isn't that surprising.

http://www.mlive.com/politics/...

Wow!

Introduction

With just over three weeks before the August 3 primary, Republican and Democratic campaigns are starting to take a look at who might be coming to the polls. Voter turnout in August tends to be rather apathetic, given that many folks are out of town or find the choices on the ballot to be unappealing. However, the 2010 Republican and Democratic primaries have a host of interesting candidates to choose from, although none as interesting as in the 3rd Congressional District primary. The 3rd Congressional District covers Barry, Ionia, and Kent County (with the exception of Alpine, Sparta, and Tyrone Townships in the northwest corner of Kent County). Add to the 3rd District race the Democratic and Republican primary races for governor and the 29th State Senate seat (Kentwood/Grand Rapids), and the competitive Republican state house races in the 72nd, 73rd, 75th, 77th, and 86th districts, there are reasons to expect higher turnout in 2010.

http://i303.photobucket.com/al...
3rd District Primary

So how many voters might come to the polls on August 3 for the 3rd District primary? The past four election cycles provide some clues. Overall primary turnout varied from 2000 to 2008, with a record 117,247 voters coming out in 2004 (largely for the zoo millage), to a low of 64,368 voters in 2008. The large number of voters in 2004 hailed overwhelmingly from Kent County, and cast huge numbers of votes in the GOP primary.

Understanding the GOP 3rd District primary in context of November election numbers can be informative. In 2000 173,465 voted for general election vote leader Spencer Abraham while 61,914 cast a ballot in the Republican primary. In 2002 152,731 voted for Ehlers in the general, while 54,132 voted in the primary. In 2004 213,895 voted for Ehlers in the general, 91,241 voted in the primary. In 2006 169,533 voted for Ehlers in the general, 52,756 voted in the primary. In 2008 203,769 voted for Ehlers in November, and 46,150 voted in the primary. Despite the noise about tea party mania, time after time turnout is lower in the gubernatorial election cycle when compared to the presidential cycle two years earlier. GOP primary turnout was 54,132 in 2002, and 52,756 in 2006, and will likely be higher in 2010 given the high-interest races mentioned earlier, but it is not going to get anywhere near the high of 91,241 in 2004. Three weeks before the election, I expect that turnout will maximize at 80,000 for the Republican primary in 2010.

The same sort of analysis applies for the Democratic primary turnout. Democratic turnout has varied significantly over the past five primaries, with 16,705 voters in 2000, 44,629 in 2002, 26,006 in 2004, 27,766 in 2006, and 15,176 in 2008. While there is a competitive Democratic gubernatorial primary, and a primary in the 29th State Senate District, turnout will not be as high as in 2002, but probably in between turnout levels set in 2002 and 2006. I would make a guess that no more than 30,000 voters will cast ballots in the Democratic primary.

http://i303.photobucket.com/al...

3rd District Typology

As important as turnout is, where the voters come from is even more crucial for a campaign in the waning days. With an estimated turnout number in mind, where are the votes coming from? In the 3rd District primaries for both parties from 2000 to 2008 between 80% and 85% of the total vote will come from the Kent County portion of the 3rd District, while about 10% to 15% generally comes from Barry County, and about 6% comes from Ionia County.  Thus, Kent County is where the action is.

However, a more informative way to look at the 3rd District would be to classify the different communities in the district into four distinct types: Rural, Exurban, Inner-Ring Suburbs, and Core City.  Of course, the core city refers to Grand Rapids, which provided an average 19% of the total GOP primary vote over the past four cycles. A large portion of the GOP vote from Grand Rapids comes from the outlying portions of the 3rd Ward Dutch heartland, although there are similar GOP areas on the fringes of the 1st and 2nd Wards. Surrounding Grand Rapids are the inner ring suburbs of Kentwood, Wyoming, Grandville, East Grand Rapids, and Walker. These inner ring suburbs were largely built between 1920 and 1970, and face many of the same demographic and financial pressures facing Grand Rapids. Many of these suburbs have trended Democratic steadily over the past four cycles (especially in Wyoming and Kentwood), although strong bastions of social conservatives (in Grandville, Walker, and Wyoming) and economic conservatives (EGR) still exist. The inner ring suburbs provide 21% of the total GOP vote, giving the Grand Rapids metropolitan core about 40% of the total Republican vote. Over 32% of the GOP primary vote comes from the exurban suburbs, areas that were built largely after 1980 that have large lot sizes and have few of the infrastructure and demographic concerns of the core city and inner ring suburbs. The exurban areas of the 3rd District include Ada, Byron, Cannon, Cascade, Gaines, Grand Rapids Township, and Plainfield Townships. Finally, the rural portions of Kent, Barry, and Ionia Counties provide the final 25% of the GOP electorate.

On the Democratic side the story is quite different. Grand Rapids provides 37% of the total vote, and I suspect that this percentage will be even higher with the 29th State Senate District primary. The inner ring suburbs provide 24%, the exurban communities 19%, and the rural portions of the district 20%.

Conclusion

The suburbs, not the city, will play a key role in the 3rd District GOP primary that in which the three candidates represents different parts of the 3rd District. Heacock represents the core city and the Ehlers-Henry school of Dutch-Calvinism moderation, Hardiman the ideology of social conservativism that dominated the inner ring suburbs such until this past decade, while Amash represents the economic libertarianism that has sprung up rapidly from its slumber in the temple of Hayek and Ayn Rand over the past decade after the disastrous ideological experience of the George W. Bush Administration, and is at home in the exurban communities that have grown rapidly over the past two decades.  The steady decline of the Grand Rapids Republican Party over the past five cycles will hurt Heacock the most (as well as Lori Wiersma in the 29th State Senate District Republican primary), and he'll be hurt further by the votes that Hardiman will take from conservative African American voters in the core (not that many, but still some). Haridman's candidacy is hurt in part by Heacock's, and the limited appeal of his social conservative ideology in the exurban areas of the 3rd District. Amash won election in the 72nd State House District in 2008 because of ample funding and a multicandidate primary. Given that he has both again, as well as unique geographic positioning, Amash has a strong road to victory in the 3rd GOP primary. However, the general election will be another story.

It's that time of campaign cycle again - time for us to pick our Democratic nominees for various offices. While some of our nominees will be picked on the August 3 primary, the rest will be nominated on August 28 and 29 at the Michigan Democratic Party Convention.

That's where we will formally nominate our endorsed candidates for Secretary of State and Attorney General, Jocelyn Benson and David Leyton, as well as candidates for State Supreme Court, Board of Education, and governing boards at U-M, MSU, and WSU.

If you're not running for Precinct Delegate or another office, you must be an MDP member by July 29 to vote! (If you joined or or renewed your membership after last August 29, you should be good to go!)

All the details, including an agenda, can be found here.

Looks like the fun times in the 72nd and 75th State House GOP primaries are continuing. The GR Press endorsed Ken Yonker and Bing Goei in their respective primaries over Eric Larson and Jordan Bush. Bush adviser Tyler Gaastra wasn't happy about this, and put his feelings in the comments:

The litmus test for the Press endorsement is support for tax subsidies or outlays? The Granholm-directed economy has failed Michigan. We can't rely on central planners in Lansing to dictate which businesses are likely to succeed in the market. Instead, we need low taxes for all businesses. The government should not play favorites. This is the philosophical argument against tax subsidies. The practical argument is that tax subsidies are not transparent and are abused (Hanger 42). They create an incentive for unlawful behavior.

If you like the Granholm's economic planning, vote for Ken Yonker or Bing Goei. If you like equal opportunity and free markets, vote for Eric Larson or Jordan Bush.

Updated: Digging a deeper hole:

You can't be pro-free market and pro-tax subsidies. Eric Larson is stronger on this issue.
So far, the Press has only endorsed candidates who favor the use of tax subsidies. If Mr. Yonker was passionately against tax subsidies, then the Press would not have endorsed.

Mr. Yonker does have a much better, more conservative, platform than Bing Goei, so I did him a disservice by linking the two.
You can read the full article and comments here:
http://www.mlive.com/opinion/g...

MI-2 Democratic congressional candidate Fred Johnson is going to be live blogging at www.CrooksandLiars.com on Saturday, July 10th, from 2:00PM to 3:00PM Eastern Standard Time. Contributions made to Fred Johnson's actblue page that day will be used to advertise on Michigan blogs.

Saturday July 10th, from 2 to 3. That's when the sun is at its peak in the middle of July and it's going to be hot as the blazes out...so it's a fine time for political junkies to get out of the sun and learn why Fred Johnson can and should win the election for Michigan's 2nd congressional district.

With Pete Hoekstra retiring from the congressional seat, now is the first time in many years it's open to a non-incumbent. It's also likely the last time it's going to be open to a non-incumbent for many election cycles. So if ever there was a time to flip Michigan's 2nd congressional district into Democratic hands, now is that time.

By the conventional narrative, this election year is supposed to be a big one for conservatives. But if that's the case, why on earth is Tea Party Republican Rand Paul sagging in the polls, showing a neck and neck fight with Democrat Jack Conway in Kentucky's US Senate elections? Kentucky! Home of Chinless Mitch McConnell. A very Republican friendly senate seat...

...it's looking like many voters aren't as fired up about the extreme brand of conservatism as peddlers of the Conservative Resurgence narrative may like us to believe.

So we come back to the Michigan 2nd congressional distrcit.

The likely Republican nominee for MI-2 is Jay Riemersma: every bit as crack-pot conservative as Rand Paul. The man is a director of the Family Research Council, for cryin' out loud.

So not only do Democrats have an opening between incumbents, but we have our own ultra-radical conservative to smack around in a climate that's not all that thrilled about the crackpot conservatives.

This really is it. It's a chance to flip a congressional seat.

Again...any contributions made to Fred Johnson's actblue page on the 10th will be used to advertise on Michigan blogs. The campaign needs the contributions now to flip this seat.

Why does Jordan have a picture of an unknown woman seemingly busting a gut laughing at the idea of Bush being a State Representative?  Strange imaging from the Bush Campaign.

If you are not registered to vote, today (Tuesday) is your last chance to do so before the primary!

While I have your attention: Did you file to run for Democratic Precinct Delegate before the May deadline? I hope so - but if you didn't, you still have a chance to run as a write-in! If you run as a write-in, please keep in mind that that form is due at the city or township clerk's office* no later than 4PM July 30 - but of course you want to get it in ASAP so you don't forget!

*Thanks, Mark!

Introduction

A few months ago I examined the underlying political conditions of the 110 Michigan State House districts, which can be found here, and in addition to previous analysis of the State Senate and State House. This analysis used a variation of the reputable House Vulnerability Index developed by Crisitunity at the Swing State Project that I called the District Vulnerability Index (DVI). This analysis is the fourth part of the series, and looks at the individual State Senate races. I last looked at individual candidate filings at the end of April, and over the past two months, the field of candidates who have filed to run in the August 2010 primary have solidified for both parties. As mentioned in previous posts, I maintain a listing of State House and State Senate candidates that includes the financial filing statements and in-depth analysis that can be obtained via a subscription by emailing peterbratt@gmail.com.  
Analysis

Using the DVI, I've divided the 38 Senate seats into five different categories; Safe GOP, Leans GOP, Swing, Leans DEM, and Safe DEM. You can see the Safe GOP seats in Table 1 below (soapblox won't let me embed these tables, so just click the link below):

Table 1 (Worksheet 1): Safe GOP (8 seats)
https://spreadsheets.google.co...

The vast majority of these seats are historic Republican strongholds, particularly those in Oakland County, and seats in rural Kent and Ottawa Counties. While only two of these seats has a GOP incumbent (Mark Jansen-Kent County and Mike Nofs-Jackson and Calhoun Counties, five of eight Democratic opponents have file financial waivers, meaning that they are going to raise no more than $1,000. Expect these eight Republicans to be in Lansing in January 2011.

Table 2 (Worksheet 2): Leans GOP (10 seats)
https://spreadsheets.google.co...

Three of these GOP-leaning seats are held by Republican incumbents, who have attracted a range of competitors. Republican Senator Roger Kahn faces a self-financed Democratic challenger in Debasish Mridha, who could make a challenge in the 32nd District. Given the Democratic baseline lean of this district, the GOP will probably provide financial assistance to Kahn in November. Of the other seven seats, there are nasty Republican primaries that could affect the outcome of the November race. In District 11, a three-way GOP primary between carpetbagger Kim Meltzer, convicted felon Jack Brandenburg, and pig-man Leon Dorlet has gotten nasty (the descriptions of these candidates have been provided be each other, not by me). Brandenburg is viewed as the strongest Republican candidate in the general election. There are also competitive Republican primaries in the 12th (eastern Oakland County), 15th (western Oakland County), and the 25th (Lapeer and St. Clair Counties).

Table 3 (Worksheet 3): Safe DEM (11 seats)
https://spreadsheets.google.co...
Most of these safe Democratic districts like in Detroit (Districts 1-5, 8-9) or in other long-term Democratic strongholds across the state (District 14-southern Oakland County, District 18 Washtenaw County, District 23-Ingham County, and District 27-Genesee County). These 11 seats will send Democrats to Lansing, although the identity of a few is still up in the air. Incumbents Hunter, Gleason, and Whitmer will return (despite Whitmer's opponent Kyle Haubrich saying on Facebook that "In November I will be singing, "I can live freely now, the Dems are gone!" "Its gonna be a bright, bright sunshinny [sic] day!!!"). Many primaries in the Detroit seats feature multiple candidate primaries that will only be sorted out come August 3.

Table 4 (Worksheet 4): Leans DEM (4 seats)
https://spreadsheets.google.co...

These four seats are districts that the Michigan Republican Party might be tempted to spend some money on this fall. Incumbent Glenn Anderson (western Wayne County) will likely be safe, and Democratic candidates Carl Marlinga is a strong candidate in the 10th District Democratic primary. While the Democratic-held 31st and 38th District seats are potentially vulnerable, the Republican primaries could hinder these candidates from getting financial traction against Democrats Jeff Mayes and Mike Lahti, respectively. I'd think that the GOP would only be going after these seats if the Dems looked DOA come the middle of October.

Table 5 (Worksheet 5: Swing (5 seats)
https://spreadsheets.google.co...

If the Democratic and Republican candidates perform as expected and win all their safe and leaning seats, there will be at least 15 Democrats and 18 Republicans in the State Senate come January 2011. The remaining 5 swing seats are likely to be the major focus of each party in the 2010 election cycle, and rightfully so. These seats are all open and four of these seats are held by Republicans (With the Democrat Senator Deb Cherry vacating District 26). All these seats feature multi-candidate primaries (with the exception of the 34th District), and depending on which candidate makes it to the general election, each party will invest heavily in these seats. I consider Democrats Mark Totten and David LaGrand to be the strongest Democratic candidates in the 20th and 29th Districts, while Republicans Larry DeShazor and Lori Wiersma would be strong general election opponents. I'm less optimistic about the Dems being able to pick up District 7, although a weak GOP candidate could emerge from a nasty primary fight (Example A: Abe Munfakh) that Kathleen Law could seriously challenge. Districts 26 and 34 could go either way, although I'd give the edge to the Democratic candidate in both seats.

Conclusion

A month before the August primary, I'm betting that the Republicans will hold a 20-18 seat edge in State Senate come January 2011. That being said, we'll know more come August 3.

You are invited to the July First Friday Fundraiser for Michigan Citizen Action.
Friday, 9 July, 5:00 - 7:00 pm, in the Ottawa Tavern in the Waters Building

Michigan Citizen Action, a member-based organization, will be on the ground in Kent County beginning this summer to help get underrepresented and 2008-first-time voters to the polls in November 2010. If we can show an interest in supporting this state-wide progressive group, then we might be able to convince them to open a permanent office in Grand Rapids! Let's all help build a progressive infrastructure here in West Michigan. This is a cause everyone can rally around.

Facebook Event Page
First Fridays work like this: we'll supply the appetizers and a few drinks (two tickets for happy hour beer and wine), you give what you can ($100, $50, $25, whatever) to support some great candidates and causes.

First Fridays take place at the Ottawa Tavern in the Waters Building, located downtown at Ottawa at Pearl (we're getting so big that all 2010 events will be held in the back in The Bite).

-- The First Friday Team: David LaGrand, Elizabeth & Jerry Lykins, and Phil Skaggs

From a Dillon Press Release (if I have the time, I'm happy to pass this along for our state-wide candidates who are making public appearances in West Michigan).

Dillon to discuss education, other vital state issues in Grand Rapids

Michigan Democratic gubernatorial candidate Andy Dillon is stopping in Grand Rapids on Friday to discuss his strong support for education during a stop on his "Renewing the Michigan Dream" tour.

Dillon is appearing at 10 a.m. at Creston High School, 1720 Plainfield Ave.

Dillon has been a forceful advocate for keeping dollars in the classroom even under tough budget conditions. In his role as House Speaker, last week Dillon stood up against Senate Republican efforts to raid the state's school aid fund to balance the general fund budget.

"Providing a strong educational foundation for our children is vital to Michigan's long-term economic success," Dillon said. "We need to give our children the tools to attract the jobs of the 21st century and stop the exodus of young people from our state."

In addition to his emphasis on protecting funding for our classrooms, Dillon plans to expand pre-Kindergarten education programs and restore funding for the Michigan Promise Scholarship Program for postsecondary education.

Education is a key component of Dillon's Renewing the Michigan Dream plan, but far from the only one. While touring the state, he is also engaging the voters in discussions on important issues such as jobs and economic growth, revitalizing our cities, reforming government, boosting clean energy programs and protecting our state's natural resources.

Have you made your summer travel plans yet? Don’t forget to include voting absentee in the Tuesday, August 3rd primary election in your plans.

Across Michigan, primary elections for Governor, Congress, State Senate and State Representative will decide our choices on the November ballot. Don’t let this chance to shape Michigan’s future pass you by!

For more information on how to get your absentee ballot:

-www.michigan.gov/vote
-govoteabsentee.org
-contact your county or city clerk (click here to find your clerk)

But remember even after you’ve mailed in your application and receive your ballot, your vote won’t count unless you have your completed ballot into your local Clerk’s office by 8pm on Election Day.

Don’t delay! Vote absentee today!

The love continues in the GOP 3rd District primary. Fresh up on youtube is an anti Justin Amash  video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

Interesting text comments posted with the video:

Justin Amash you have gone beyond the point of decency. I have followed Steve Heacock's campaign for some time and what you and your goons did last week to this fine man's reputation is reprehensible. It took a few of us awhile to figure out how to make this video, but we thought you deserve a taste of your own medicine. Unlike your attempt to mock Mr. Heacock, this is not a product of a campaign. Actually, I think Mr. Heacock would probably disapprove. However, we do think that you are too immature for public office. Not to mention that, we agree that both you and your views are creepy. Besides, you remind us of the guy in school that never washes his hands after going to the bathroom. Enjoy ....

Have to say, while the video claims that Amash's house is worth $400,000, zillow estimates the property's worth at $499,000, and the state of Michigan's State Equalized Value of the property is $262,000, meaning that the house is worth about $524,000. Either way, waiting for Hardiman to get an attack video shortly.

It's too bad there wasn't time for more comments, wish there was video of the Senior Advocates debate a week later.  But, it's what we have.

At our Board meeting last Sunday, the Justice Caucus made the following endorsements:

The Justice Caucus has added several candidates to its list of endorsements for 2010 elections. Candidates for Governor, State Senate and State House were endorsed, joining Jocelyn Benson previously endorsed for Secretary of State.

Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero was endorsed for Governor. A strong candidate with a history of fighting for Michigan workers, Bernero has already begun the fight for Michigan with his advocacy for the auto industry and working people. He previously served as county commissioner, State Rep. and State Senator.

Representative Mary Valentine was endorsed for State Senate District 34. An alumni of Camp Millie, Mary attended the very first Camp Millie. She used the skills she learned there to turn her House District blue. A powerful advocate for education, she has also worked on behalf of Michigan families and workers and to hold drug companies accountable.

Representative Rebekah Warren was endorsed for State Senate District 18. Rebekah has reached across the aisle to negotiate the bipartisan passage of landmark water protection legislation, worked with key stakeholders to retain and attract industry to Michigan. Prior to her election to the State House, Rebekah was chief of staff to Democratic State Representatives Mary Schroer (D-Ann Arbor) and Hubert Price (D-Pontiac) from 1993 to 1999, and then Executive Director of MARAL Pro-Choice Michigan, the state's oldest and largest grassroots pro-choice organization.

Representative Dian Slavens was endorsed for a second term in House District 21. In 2008, she worked tirelessly to turn her House District blue. In the House, she has been a strong advocate for healthcare, against elder abuse and for advanced battery production bringing new industry and jobs to Michigan. Dian is demanding the legislature be held accountable -- docking their pay if they fail to deliver a timely budget or miss sessions (not to mention a 10% pay cut).

Each of these Democrats deserve our support because they have shown time and again their support for progressive values.

In 2010, Michigan will elect a Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State, two members of the Supreme Court, 38 State Senators and 110 State Representatives. 



Members of the Michigan Coalition for Progress know that the election is in 135 days….but do your family, friends and neighbors?



The Coalition is gearing up to educate and empower voters across the state about leaders who will address the important issues facing our state. Don't you want your neighbors, friends and family to also be one of the first to hear our message?



Ask them to join us and be informed and ready to fight in 2010.  Tell five friends in your area to join you as one of the over 40,000 members of the Coalition for Progress today!